Fundamentals Come First

After a surprise fifth place finish, Rand Paul dropped out the Presidential race. My scrapings suggested that Paul had a strong Twitter presence, something that could actually mean something if connected with the result in Iowa. That is a big ‘could.’

Money definitely matters. Paul had little of it, with his campaign running with just over one-million and the super-pac with just over four. This is not a well capitalized operation. Paul never caught the support level of his father, no wild-eyed ground game was behind him.

On the ground in Kentucky, he faces a primary and then a strong democratic challenger from Lexington. Kentucky Republicans delivered on their promise to cut “Obamacare” by ending the state’s extremely popular Kynect program. Combined with growth in Lexington and Louisville and the polarization of the Evangelical vote, it seems that the safe place for a Southern Libertarian may have become quite tight.

Paul had a fairly robust social media impact for a candidate with his fundamentals. It didn’t translate into a win. Trump has an outsized social media impact compared to Cruz, this translated into a near tie for third. Neither polls nor tweets effectively predicted the outcome. All measures are suspect.

Super Tuesday is less than a month away. There is no chance that any of these candidates will be effective in building a ground game in each state. The question is, will Paul voters head for any of the remaining candidates, or will they head toward Sanders as Penn and Teller recommend?